"Indian Air Strikes: What Could Pakistan’s Response Be? Four Key Questions Answered"
Update News today May 7,2025,8:10 am ET
In a Dramatic Escalation of tensions between two nuclear-armed rivals, India has carried out missile and air strikes on nine targets in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. The pre-dawn operation, which India says was based on “credible intelligence” about militant activity, took place between 1:05am and 1:30am local time (19:35–20:00 GMT Tuesday).
Pakistan has confirmed that six locations were hit, and claims to have shot down five Indian fighter jets and a drone—allegations that India has not acknowledged. Islamabad also reports that 26 people were killed and 46 injured in the strikes and artillery shelling along the Line of Control (LoC), the de facto border. Meanwhile, Indian authorities say 10 civilians died due to Pakistani shelling.
The strikes follow last month’s deadly attack on tourists in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir. India has blamed Pakistan-based militant groups for the assault, though Pakistan denies involvement and says no evidence has been presented.
A New Escalation?
This latest action appears broader and more assertive than previous Indian responses. Following past attacks—such as the 2016 Uri raid and the 2019 Pulwama bombing—India conducted targeted strikes across the LoC. This time, however, Indian officials say their forces targeted infrastructure belonging to Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM), and Hizbul Mujahideen across a wider geographic area.
Strikes reportedly hit two militant camps in Sialkot, just a few kilometers from the Indian border, as well as deeper targets, including a Jaish-e-Mohammed facility in Bahawalpur and a LeT base in Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistan-administered Kashmir.
Pakistan denies hosting any militant camps at these sites.
According to historian Srinath Raghavan, “What stands out is the shift beyond past patterns. India is now targeting areas across the International Border in Punjab, not just Pakistan-administered Kashmir. This marks a more expansive and deliberate approach.”
Former Indian High Commissioner Ajay Bisaria described the operation as a “Balakot-plus” strike—more precise, visible, and harder for Pakistan to deny. He emphasized that the strikes were designed to “re-establish deterrence.”
Will Pakistan Retaliate?
Most experts agree that Pakistan is likely to respond, and that how both sides manage the aftermath will be crucial.
“Retaliation is almost certain. The challenge will be to control further escalation,” Bisaria told the BBC.
Dr. Ejaz Hussain, a Lahore-based analyst, says that retaliatory strikes—perhaps surgical strikes across the border—are probable given the Pakistani military’s stated resolve.
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However, he also warns that tit-for-tat strikes could spiral into a limited conventional war. U.S.-based South Asia expert Christopher Clary agrees, suggesting that Pakistan will likely target Indian military assets to avoid a full-scale war while still maintaining a “quid pro quo plus” posture.
Despite this, there remains cautious optimism. Clary says there is a “decent chance” the standoff may not go beyond the current round of strikes and counter-strikes.
Domestic Pressures and Political Calculations
Unlike previous crises, the current confrontation unfolds against a backdrop of domestic turbulence in Pakistan. Political analyst Umer Farooq points out that public enthusiasm for military action is muted—especially with former Prime Minister Imran Khan imprisoned and the military under scrutiny for alleged political overreach.
Still, in regions like Punjab where anti-India sentiment runs high, public opinion could shift in favor of military action. This, in turn, could help the Pakistani military regain public support.
“Media narratives already claim Indian jets were downed, regardless of verification,” says Dr. Hussain. “Such stories rally the public behind the military.”
Can Diplomacy Prevail?
India has taken several retaliatory steps since the Pahalgam attack, including suspending diplomatic ties, halting visas, blocking Pakistani aircraft, and closing border crossings. Pakistan has responded in kind, suspending a 1972 peace treaty and escalating its own measures.
These moves mirror the post-Pulwama pattern in 2019, which culminated in the capture and eventual release of Indian pilot Abhinandan Varthaman—a diplomatic turning point that helped cool tensions.
Whether this new cycle follows a similar path remains uncertain. Experts caution that both sides must tread carefully to avoid a deeper conflict.
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